With the race for the semi-finals heating up, we look at how Tuesday’s results impact every team, with the help of the FTX Bracket Challenge.
With 11 matches to go in the Super 12 stage, we only have one confirmed semi-finalist.
That spot belongs to Pakistan, who locked down their final four berth after defeating Namibia. Their big win means there is only one semi-final berth left from Group 2 of the Super 12.
In Day 17’s afternoon match, South Africa hammered Bangladesh, putting themselves in prime position to reach the semi-finals. Their victory ended the hopes of both Bangladesh and Sri Lanka reaching the next stage, with neither side able to catch up on second-place from here.
Nevertheless, there is still plenty to play for for both Asian outfits.
Having already secured automatic qualification for the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup 2022 in Australia by reaching the Super 12 stage in this tournament, both Sri Lanka and Bangladesh will be intent on guaranteeing themselves automatic entry into the Super 12 stage of the next tournament.
From the 12 automatic qualifiers for next year’s tournament, the winner and runner up of the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup 2021 plus the next six highest ranked teams – as of November 15 – will go straight through to the Super 12 stage of Australia 2022.
Bangladesh and Sri Lanka sit ninth and 10th on the T20I rankings respectively right now but could enter the Super 12, 2022 automatic qualification spots if results go their way. Following Tuesday’s results, we look at what each team needs to do to reach the next stage of the tournament.
GROUP 1
Minimum points to reach semi-finals: Six points
Maximum points needed to reach semi-finals: 10 points
ENGLAND
First – Eight points – four matches – NRR of 3.183
Remaining opponents: South Africa
What they need to do to reach the semi-finals: They’re basically there
England have all but locked down their spot in the final four with eight points from four games. While both Australia and South Africa can still join England on eight points, not only would they each have to win their remaining games – for the Proteas that includes a match against England – they would need to win significantly enough to overturn England’s massive NRR lead.
A victory over South Africa in their final group game would take NRR out of the equation and cement their already stone-tight grip on top spot.
In short: They’re virtually already into the semi-finals.
SOUTH AFRICA
Second – Six points – Four games – NRR of 0.742
Remaining opponents: England
What they need to reach the semi-finals: Win and hope
South Africa have bounced back well since their opening defeat against Australia but their fate is still not entirely in their own hands. The Proteas could theoretically lose their last match and still make the semi-finals but they would be relying heavily on other results and hoping NRR remains in their favour.
Conversely, they could win their remaining match and still not make the next stage with the possibility of all three of England, Australia and themselves finishing on eight points.
Their NRR is +0.742 should see them through if they win, with Australia (-0.627) and West Indies (-1.598) needing to motor to leapfrog them there.
In short: Winning their last match should see them through, losing their last match could see them exit the tournament.
AUSTRALIA
Third – Four points – three matches – NRR of -0.627
Remaining opponents: Bangladesh, West Indies
What they need to reach the semi-finals: Win and hope
Australia were firmly on course for the semi-finals until a big defeat against England neutered their NRR, leaving their fate in the hands of others. the Aussies trail South Africa by two points with a game in hand and will be conscious of NRR across their final two matches given how tight the group is.
They have the reigning champions and Bangladesh to come in their group fixtures. If they win both those games and South Africa lose their last match against England they will go through.
If they win both their games and South Africa are also victorious, it will come down to NRR and Australia have a lot of ground to make up. A loss in either of their last matches leaves them hoping England hammer South Africa.
In short: Winning both matches could see them through, winning one match might see them through, winning no matches will see them exit the tournament.
SRI LANKA
Fourth – Two points – four matches – NRR of -0.590
Remaining opponents: West Indies
What they need to do: Win to boost their 2022 Super 12 chances
With just one match to go in their Super 12 campaign, Sri Lanka can finish on a maximum of four points.
That won’t be enough to seem them reach the semi-finals but they will be intent on improving their spot on the ICC T20I rankings given the prior mentioned Super 12, 2022 ramifications.
In short: Sri Lanka still have something to play for.
WEST INDIES
Fifth – Two points – three games – NRR of -1.598
Remaining opponents: Sri Lanka, Australia
What they need to do: Win and pray
Defending champions West Indies’ campaign got off to the roughest of starts against England, with their NRR decimated after being bowled out for 55. Their hopes were hurt further in an eight-wicket defeat against South Africa before they revived their campaign with a three-run win over Bangladesh.
Their chances of reaching the next stage look very slim but they aren’t out of the race yet. They need to win both their matches to be in contention. If they can collect four points from their remaining two matches, they will not only bolster their chances but hurt fellow contenders Australia’s, ensuring Aaron Finch’s team finish on a maximum of six points.
If South Africa also drop points in their last game against England, then the Proteas, Australia and West Indies could all finish on six points bringing NRR into the equation. As things stand, West Indies are at the back of the line for NRR, so they would need things to change significantly here.
In short: If they win both matches they have a slim chance of making it. Anything less and they’re out.
BANGLADESH
Sixth – zero points – four matches – NRR of -1.435
Remaining opponents: Australia
What they need to do: Win to boost their 2022 Super 12 chances
With four losses from four Super 12 matches, Bangladesh can no longer reach the semi-finals.
Like Sri Lanka, they still have something to play for as they look to improving their spot on the ICC T20I rankings with Super 12 2022 ramifications in mind.
In short: They need to win both their games and hope for something miraculous.
GROUP 2
Minimum points to reach semi-finals: Four points
Maximum points required to reach semi-finals: Eight points
PAKISTAN
First – Eight points – Four games – NRR of 0.638
Remaining opponents: Scotland
What they need to do: One win to lock down top spot
Alongside England, Pakistan have looked like the team to beat at this tournament, beating India by 10 wickets before impressive wins over New Zealand, Afghanistan and Namibia.
Their victory over Namibia locked in their spot in the semi-finals. They’ll need to win both to guarantee a first-place finish to avoid a likely semi-final against world No.1 England.
AFGHANISTAN
Second – Four points – three games – NRR of 3.097
Remaining opponents: India, New Zealand
What they need to do: Winning their remaining matches should be enough
Afghanistan have their fate in their own hands after convincing wins over Scotland and Namibia on either side of a tough defeat to Pakistan, leaving them with the healthiest NRR of the group.
They can lock down their spot in the semi-finals by winning each of their last two games, but that won’t be easy with matches against India and New Zealand to come.
The only unknown here is the prospect of Namibia winning all of their remaining matches to open the possibility of a three-way tie on eight points at the top of the table with themselves, Afghanistan and Pakistan. NRR should hold Afghanistan in good stead if that happens.
Given the health of their NRR, a win over New Zealand would likely be enough on its own for Afghanistan unless India or Scotland can register seismic wins in each of their last three matches.
If they fail to beat New Zealand but beat India they will require the Black Caps to lose to either Scotland or Namibia – they would also be at risk of being leapfrogged by either Scotland or Namibia.
If they lose both their remaining matches, Afghanistan will almost certainly bow out of the tournament.
In short: Victory over New Zealand should be enough
NEW ZEALAND
Third – Two points – two games – NRR of 0.765
Remaining opponents: Scotland, Afghanistan, Namibia
What they need to do: Win their remaining matches
On paper, New Zealand have got their two toughest games out of the way, suffering a loss to Pakistan before winning comfortably against India. That has them firmly on course for the semi-finals.
If they win their remaining three matches they will be guaranteed a spot in the next stage. A loss to Afghanistan would likely see them bow out of the tournament given the Asian nation’s super NRR. A victory over Afghanistan paired with losses to either or both of Scotland and Namibia would see them relying on other results.
In short: Winning their next three matches locks them in, winning two out of three is likely to be enough as long as one win is against Afghanistan
In short: One more win to go into the semi-finals unbeaten.
NAMIBIA
Fourth – Two points – Three games – NRR of -1.287
Remaining opponents: New Zealand, India
What they need to do: Win their remaining matches and hope
Having registered a famous win over Scotland in their first ever Super 12 match, Namibia are still in the chase despite chastening defeats to Afghanistan and Pakistan.
If they win both their remaining matches, they will have one foot in the semi-finals. Of course, that won’t be easy given their next two opponents are New Zealand and India.
They are relying on other results as is and given their NRR, any loss from here will leave them with in a desperate situation.
In short: They can ill-afford another loss.
INDIA
Fifth – Zero points – two games – NRR of -1.609
Remaining opponents: Afghanistan, Scotland, Namibia
What they need to do: Win and hope
Among the pre-tournament favourites, India find themselves on the brink of elimination after just two matches following heavy defeats against Pakistan and New Zealand.
Their likeliest road to the semi-finals is registering big wins over each of their next three opponents while hoping Afghanistan beat New Zealand by the barest of margins so they can catch up on NRR.
A loss in their next game would end their hopes, with both Pakistan and Afghanistan uncatchable on six points.
Any loss leaves them relying heavily on other results going their way even more than they already are.
In short: India’s prospects look grim and they’ll need a favour from Afghanistan against New Zealand.
SCOTLAND
Sixth – Zero points – Two games – NRR of -3.562
Remaining opponents: New Zealand, India, Pakistan
What they need to do: Win and hope
A heavy first-up defeat against Afghanistan before a loss to Namibia has left Scotland with slim chance of progressing but they are mathematically alive.
If they can win their next three games – a big ‘if’ since those games are against New Zealand, India and Pakistan – they will have six points to their name, which could be enough. They would need a plethora of results elsewhere to go their way, with a single win to Afghanistan or two to either Namibia or New Zealand likely to end their hopes given their weak NRR.
In terms of the 2022 tournament, Scotland’s ICC T20I ranking at 14th looks unlikely to improve enough to avoid the First Round stage in Australia.
In short: They need something incredible to happen
Courtesy : icc-cricket
